A Flashforward to Today Made in the Past: Evaluating 25-Year-Old Projections of Precipitation and Temperature over West Africa

While scientists generally generate new projections with the newest models, paper suggested use of past as a different approach which could be explored and then complement classical approaches. With idea that today is yesterday’s future, set Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate (first-AR1, second-AR2 third-AR3 assessment reports) were compared to gauge-based observations last three decades (1990–2016). Why would someone need check previous models scenarios when ones are currently available? Some in-depth discussion points raised answer question. Monthly annual precipitation temperatures analyzed over West Africa, divided into 3 climatic sub-regions. The results revealed observed differences greater at higher latitudes strongly scenario dependent. Business-as-Usual (few or no steps taken limit greenhouse gas emissions) appeared closest observations. AR1 shown disconnected from AR2 exhibited best performance, AR3 presented uncertainties in northern areas. relative importance potential implications between society appreciated regard certain weather-related factors greatly influence sustainable development region, such water resources management, agriculture practices yields, health conditions, fishery management. Finally, some recommendations policy decision makers given well further research topics for scientific community.